Percent Logic – Closing Thoughts

Greetings Dear Reader,

I had pondered many other things to discuss concerning this but as I think through it I come to a conclusion.  Statistics must lose to compassion and love every time.  So much of their common use is political. The political must always take a back seat to the pursuit of good.

As an example I ponder the tragic shootings in Orlando.   Much more time has been spent on the ISIS and gun control conversation than on how we get to the place where killing strangers is the right thing to do.   We do not teach our society to be loving and selfless. 

We no longer place the ultimate value on human life.  We instead measure its value against other things such as convince and choice.  We allow hunger and need to exist so that we can do what we want to do.  We politicize and debate while people are being killed or dying. 

Data is important.  It is an excellent servant in science and understanding the world.  In the hands of the ill-intentioned it is a dangerous weapon.  Statistical data with integrity and used with the same can benefit us greatly.  When we use statistics to manipulate and control others we create belief based on lies.  It leaves me wondering which has killed more people: statistics or guns.

Wishing you joy in the journey,

Aramis Thorn

Mat 13:52 So Jesus said to them, "That is why every writer who has become a disciple of Christ’s rule of the universe is like a home owner. He liberally hands out new and old things from his great treasure store.”

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Percent Logic – Statistics and Morality

Greetings Dear Reader,

One of the things that we ignore when inundated with statistics is that sometimes they just do not matter.  There used to be a time when most of the scientific world believed that the world was flat.   Even if everyone believes that the world is flat, 100%, they would still be wrong.

There are times when ti does not matter how much we think a thing is true or how many people believe it.  I am going to use a harsh example here.  I believe it.  It is, however, an example of how morality trumps data.  In the Holocaust during World War II 100% of the people who believed it was write to kill those in the concentration camps were wrong.  There is no moral value in interring people because ow what we think of them.   

The same can be said for the Japanese camps in our own country.  The same can be said for any situation where we take the position that it is right to wrong in order to meet the desire of the majority.   No political pole or common thought can justify the mistreatment of others.

For those of you who take the rather safe than sorry position it is clear that often when we do so with human rights we end up killing people.   That is unacceptable.  I am going to offer this last thought on this.  I realize it is harsh and that I will offend some of you Dear Reader.   I am not judging individuals.  I am judging a position and an act.

No matter how we view it statically or how we present the data the moral truth is this.  100% of all abortions are murder.   No matter what situational ethics you wish to apply it is murder.  No matter how many statistics you present of who will do what if it is illegal murder is murder. 

I know that some of you disagree.  What plagues me is that people need to deny this truth to justify choices.   What about the statistics we ignore.  Only a small percentage of abortions are for medical or psychological necessity.  And then there is this; in this country alone we have destroy over 1 Billion years of potential life.  That alone is enough for me to choose morality over statistics.

Wishing you joy in the journey,

Aramis Thorn

Mat 13:52 So Jesus said to them, "That is why every writer who has become a disciple of Christ’s rule of the universe is like a home owner. He liberally hands out new and old things from his great treasure store.”

(͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Percent Logic - Refugees and Terrorists

Greetings Dear Reader,

We will hear all kinds of statistics about how few of the refugees that seek safety are actually a danger to us.  Those statistics are likely accurate.  We will also hear the argument that we have to get it right all the time and that they only have to succeed once.  We reduce the argument of being humane to others to numbers, possibilities, and probabilities.

In all of this I ask the same question:  What is my obligation to Christ in aiding others?  I am not supposed to put my safety first if others are in danger.  Yes I must consider the safety of others.  Yes there will be a flood of scenarios and circumstances where the answers are hard. 

This is why there are very clear guiding principles for those who follow Christ.  We must love our enemies.  We must meet the needs of those in dire straits.  I have to see the hungry as hungry, not as hungry “fill in whatever group you wish to avoid”.   I must risk it all for others. 

So the statistics are simple in this.  100% of the people who are terrorists are worthy of being loved.  They can and must be stopped but not by denying the needs of others.   What would be the impact of every Christ follower acting in this way?   

I cannot say that I know what the answer is here.  I do not know that there must be a way to find the true path.  There must be a way to love our enemies, protect our own, and meet the needs of our neighbors no matter how big the neighborhood.  In this case the statistics are only used to justify avoiding one of these.

Wishing you joy in the journey,

Aramis Thorn

Mat 13:52 So Jesus said to them, "That is why every writer who has become a disciple of Christ’s rule of the universe is like a home owner. He liberally hands out new and old things from his great treasure store.”

(͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Percent Logic – Belief equals Truth…

Greetings Dear Reader,

…or does it?  One of the ways in which we fail to respect the science of statistics is when we force the data to reflect our position.   This misuse of statistics is called a statistical fallacy.  

I am going to lapse into educator mode for a moment.  The basis of cognitive learning is the gaining of knowledge, leading to understanding, then to application.  Statistics are used to help us understand things.  When we create statistical fallacies we limit or even manipulate understanding.

Some of the ways in which this is done are discarding favorable data, asking loaded questions, using biased samples, asserting a false causality, data dredging, and many more manipulations.  There is ample reading out there on this topic if one cares to pursue it.   The point is that when we intentionally misuse or skew data we create false understanding that leads to false application.

The process works like this:

I believe X is true

I skew my data so that it proves X

You are told that X is true.

It should work like this:

I believe X is true.

I gather, analyze, and report honest data.

I adjust what I believe based on the honest data.

I say all this with an open an honest caveat.  Some things require belief and cannot be proven or disproven.  In honesty we also must consider that Aristotelian logic is not the only type of valid reasoning.  There are other forms of reasoning that are valid.  Truth that cannot be found in statistics may be found in other forms of reasoning such as metaphorical logic.  We will touch on that later.

For now we need to focus on the principle that the use of statistical reasoning must be honest and avoid fallacies.  We may gain followers through statistical manipulation but we build our foundations on shaky ground when we do so.  Those inside my faith have done this and caused great damage. 

I have a dear friend who has walked away from faith because of this.  He actively pursues proof for his unbelief because of the harm done him by false data used to represent God.  It is necessary to view honest data.  It is also necessary to realize that we cannot prove some things.  Most importantly God does not command that we prove his existence.  He requires that we follow in faith.

I was reminded by a dear friend yesterday that this is not as easy for others as it is for me.  It is not up to me to prove that the Father wants you to see the Son Dear Reader.  It is up to me to follow in love and grace so that faith becomes an undeniable certainty. 

Wishing you joy in the journey,

Aramis Thorn

Mat 13:52 So Jesus said to them, "That is why every writer who has become a disciple of Christ’s rule of the universe is like a home owner. He liberally hands out new and old things from his great treasure store.”

(͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Percent Logic – Opening Thoughts

Greetings Dear Reader,

Statistics are important.  We can use them honestly understand behaviors, opinions, and conditions.  Statistics allow us to measure and quantify.  They are a valid part of research and understanding.

The problem with statistics is that they are subject to abuse.   It is easy to dishonestly represent what they say and mean.  It is easy to manipulate data to get the answers we wish.  Without integrity statics are a dangerous weapon. 

In this political and oddly violent season we see all kinds of statistics supporting this or that position.  Beyond the manipulation of the data comes the inequitable application of statistical logic to social situations.  We use percent logic to create memes that support our position but do not allow that to be equalized across a spectrum.

I believe that it is very difficult to legislate morality and do so equitably.   It is also difficult to measure some things equitably.  We cannot say that all things are equal statistically and have a moral society.  It just does not work that way.

I am thinking through the things that are being measured in our society and wondering how to assure that I filter the data through faith.  I hope you will walk through some reasoning on logic with me Dear Reader.   I always value your thoughts and questions.  After all, 100% of you are precious to me.

Wishing you joy in the journey,

Aramis Thorn

Mat 13:52 So Jesus said to them, "That is why every writer who has become a disciple of Christ’s rule of the universe is like a home owner. He liberally hands out new and old things from his great treasure store.”

(͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)